This week we are sending you a transcript of my conversation with one of China’s most prominent and influential pro-market economists. Topics raised during my conversation with this Chinese expert may offer our clients important insights and provide context into recent developments in China’s econom...
The S&P 500 was up through 1Q23 and in April, despite the prevailing banking crisis, recession fears, and rising rates. The market is still not adequately pricing tighter monetary conditions, slowing growth, and economic uncertainty. Disappointment may be in store. We remain defensively positioned....
The ECB continues to focus on lagging indicators and risks once again to cause a policy error that unduly hurts European growth. What does it mean for investors?...
Although our take has not changed yet, the immediate emergence of a second wave of banking system stresses poses a new threat to our constructive near-term economic and market views and will have to be monitored carefully....
The Fed increased interest rates by 0.25% during its May FOMC meeting, a hike that was both well-telegraphed and widely anticipated. However, the FOMC statement and post-meeting press conference of Chairman Powell had enough for both bulls and bears to stay entrenched in their respective positions. ...
If the recession begins this year, it is unlikely to be mild, because inflation will not have fallen by enough to allow the Fed to cut rates aggressively. In contrast, if the recession starts in 2024 or later, when inflation is likely to be much lower, the Fed will be able to cushion the blow. Our b...
The initial phase of the EU’s ambitious CBAM will launch 1 October and will begin collecting a carbon tax in 2026. Between now and then, it will be challenged as it attempts to put a price tag on CO2 emissions as imports cross the EU border. The CBAM will impart an inflationary bias in EU commodity ...
In a relatively uneventful month, given the action-packed start to 2023, the BCA Score L/S performed well as the outperformance of Safety and Technicals overpowered the underperformance of Value and Size. With this in mind, the USHQ SMID cap portfolio was able to beat its benchmark, however the USHQ...
Indian EPS growth is set for major disappointments vis-à-vis the lofty expectations. Weak domestic demand amid tight fiscal and monetary policy entails more downside in stock prices. Stay underweight....
The Fed hiked 25 basis points at yesterday’s FOMC meeting while also signaling that the tightening cycle is now on hold. We discuss the short-run and long-run implications for Treasury yields....
