Latest from BCA Research
There is a connection between the bond market meltdown and Republican Party’s meltdown. Investors should expect more short-term financial market volatility as a result of the triple whammy of high bond yields, high oil prices, and a strong dollar.
We unveil the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator as a much better version of the Federal Reserve’s own ‘Sahm rule’. And we identify what would trigger these recession indicators in this week’s and future US jobs reports. Plus: airlines, soybeans, and tin are all good rebound candidates based on their collapsed short-term complexities.
The Global Equity Score went up slightly; however, it still maintains a neutral stance. The sector model favors Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services. The Style indicator is leaning towards Large Cap - Value stocks.
MacroQuant is overweight equities, underweight bonds, and neutral cash.
Downside risks to equities are building. Rates, the dollar, and energy prices will remain elevated into yearend. This trifecta makes a soft landing less likely than before and hurts corporate profits and multiples. However, high cash balances may offer downside protection against a sharp correction.
Aggressive monetary tightening has always led to recession, although the timing is uncertain. The effects of high interest rates are starting to be felt. Investors should stay risk off and buy government bonds as a safe haven investment with carry.
