There has been a paradigm shift in Beijing’s approach to policy stimulus. The main purpose of government policy is now managing downside risks to the economy in both the short and long term. The priority for the central government is to build an economic and financial system resilient against potent...
The equity market is back to the 2019 level on an inflation-adjusted basis. However, it is still not cheap as it is not pricing in the possibility of a prolonged and deep earnings recession or a higher interest rates regime. Many areas of the market that appear cheap, are cheap for a reason. The onl...
The Chilean economy is entering a recession. Inflation will drop rapidly and the central bank will cut rates meaningfully in H2 2023. We continue to recommend a structural overweight across Chilean risk assets on the basis of falling inflation and local yields, record cheap valuations, and dissipate...
A run of hot January data shook up financial markets, but we think they overreacted. We remain constructive on equities and the economy in the near term....
In this week’s report, we speculate on the evolution of euro trading in light of the near-term hiccups, but tremendous value that can be unlocked for longer-term investors....
The BCA Style Score now favors large-cap value and the MacroQuant Sector model downgraded materials and communication services. As an addendum, we look at the average Value and Quality scores per sector for small caps and generate a screen based on the results....
In this week’s report, we speculate on the evolution of euro trading in light of the near-term hiccups, but tremendous value that can be unlocked for longer-term investors....
Rather than teetering into recession, global growth has firmed since the start of the year. While we still expect inflation to decline, the risk that central banks will need to lift rates more than discounted has increased. Long-term focused investors should start raising cash allocations by trimmin...
Central Banks remain in thrall to the mistaken impression that backwardated oil futures markets are signaling lower headline inflation over the next 2-3 years. This is not the signal the markets are sending: Backwardation is an indication inventories are being drawn down to cover a physical supply d...
