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Developed Countries

FICC
The Non-US Implications Of Our Recent US Duration Upgrade

In this report, we follow up on the upgrade to our US duration stance from last week with a review of our rates views and government bond allocations outside the US. We conclude that while we now find US Treasuries to be more attractive from a value perspective, even better value is available in euro area and UK government debt.

3 years ago
Essentials
Leading Indicators Bode Ill For Global Manufacturing
The Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 49.6 in May – below the 50 boom-bust line for the ninth consecutive month. The details of the release were mixed. On the one hand, the Production sub-component rose to an 11-month high of 51.5. On the other hand,…
3 years ago
Essentials
May In Review
Global financial markets relapsed in May. After a relatively strong start to Q2, most of the major financial assets we track generated below average returns last month. A shift in investor expectations for the path of the Fed funds rate, the resurfacing of…
3 years ago
Essentials
The Equity Bear Market Is Not Over
BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service continues to recommend an overweight on government bonds, neutral on cash, and underweight on equities and credit. Market technicals do not suggest this is a robust broad-based equity rally. The US stock market…
3 years ago
Portfolio
Monthly Portfolio Update: Where Could We Be Wrong?

Risk assets would perform well over 12 months only if inflation falls to 2% without triggering a recession. That would be unprecedented. We recommend investors stay defensive.

Garry Evans
3 years ago
Essentials
Beige Book Monitor: Cooling US Economy
The Fed’s Beige Book is signaling that the US economy is losing steam following an improvement in momentum earlier this year. The release revealed that future growth expectations deteriorated. In particular, manufacturing activity was weak across most of the…
3 years ago
Essentials
US Treasurys: An Attractive Long-Duration Entry Point
Over the past month, market participants have shifted their expectations for the path of the Fed funds rate. At the start of May, expectations were for the Fed to cut rates below current levels to just above 4.5% by the end of the year. Participants now…
3 years ago
Essentials
A Word On French Banks
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service French banks are better positioned to weather current headwinds than their European peers. The team sees limited risks to the French banking sector from the recent banking turmoil. French banks…
3 years ago
Essentials
Does Labor Market Resilience Necessitate Fed Hawkishness?
The JOLTS survey for April shows job openings unexpectedly rising from an upwardly revised 9.7 million to 10.1 million – above expectations of a decline to 9.4 million. The job openings rate inched up to 6.1% from 5.9% while the ratio of job openings to…
3 years ago
CoreMacro
Why Oil Is Headed To $55 (The Reprise)

Expectations for oil demand growth through 2023-24 are way too optimistic. Until these expectations fall to -0.5-1 percent, the oil price has further downside. Plus: collapsed complexity confirms that AI is in a mania, while basic materials stocks and ZAR/EUR are rebound candidates.

Dhaval Joshi
3 years ago

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