Global smartphone demand will likely find a bottom in 2024Q1 and rebound modestly between 2024Q2 and Q4. Competition in the global smartphone market will intensify. Chinese phone makers will gain market share from Apple and Samsung. Continue overweighting Taiwanese stocks, including tech, within the...
Our kinked Phillips curve framework predicted the immaculate disinflation of 2023. That same framework is now warning that the global economy is heading towards a recession in the second half of 2024....
Contrary to the prevalent belief in the global investment community, goods/merchandise inventories in the US and East Asia are rather elevated. Financial markets respond to final demand fluctuations, not inventory restocking. Global manufacturing/trade will continue contracting, even though the pace...
China’s push to dramatically expand its copper-refining capacity will be complemented by further vertical integration of mining assets. However, surplus refining capacity will push treatment and refining charges lower in the short run. The threat of EU tariffs on Chinese EV imports looms large, and ...
A machine learning approach to synthesize 'Smart Sectors' for mid- to large-cap US Equities, which we demonstrate in a backtest to provide superior risk-adjusted returns using the BCA Score....
Poland’s inflation will stay elevated. And yet, its return to the European mainstream has improved its financial market outlook. Accordingly, we are recommending new trades on Polish equity, fixed income, and currency....
The Chilean economy is in a unique position worldwide: as it is the first to enter a recession, it will be the first to recover. Together with historically cheap valuations, this will lead to a sustained outperformance of Chilean stocks relative to their EM peers....
Mid-caps are the best of both worlds and are an excellent strategic overweight thanks to their size premium, but also better financial quality and higher dividend yield than Small. We are bullish on Mid near term and believe that this may be a great trade. We will initiate a position in the S&P 400 ...
