Due to funding constraints, China’s infrastructure investment nominal growth rate will likely slow from 9% in 2023 to about 6% this year. The new issuance of Special Treasury Bonds will prevent a contraction in the country’s infrastructure spending, but it will not lead to an acceleration. Stay caut...
The equity rally extended into March as hard landing outcome was priced out. It has broadened, as money flowed into less over-loved pockets of the market. Our models signal that margins are about to stabilize, and earnings growth will accelerate as the year progresses. However, companies are raising...
We are not yet ready to downgrade equities on a tactical basis but continue to expect we will eventually do so. We present a checklist of indicators that we are watching to determine when to de-risk....
The global economy is wobbling precariously between slowing growth and reaccelerating inflation. This is unlikely to end well. Stay cautious, and hedge against both recession and inflation....
Italy is no longer Europe’s problem child. Investors will be better off reassessing their views of Italian assets, which represent a buying opportunity on a structural time horizon....
MacroQuant downgraded equities from overweight to neutral on a 1-to-3 month horizon. The model maintains a negative view on stocks over a 12-month horizon....
