President Biden has announced his withdrawal from the presidential race. The news will no doubt come to dominate the news cycle in the upcoming week of July 22, which is unfortunate as it will drown out some important developments from the preceding week....
The PBoC lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.80% to 1.70% on Monday. The 5-year and 1-year loan prime rates declined by 10 basis points (bps) to 3.85% and 3.35%, respectively. However, this 10-bps cut is unlikely to have any meaningful stimulative effect on the overall economy. Not only is th...
It’s status quo for the SIFI banks, as they don’t see consumer credit performance materially worsening from now-normalized levels and they are not meaningfully exposed to commercial real estate losses....
We review some of the key data releases this week that we find have an impact on our currency strategy. Long yen positions make sense today. Long sterling and the euro bets are more of a judgment call, and we will fade any strength in these currencies. This report delves into these nuances, and sugg...
The four ASEAN stock markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines) have fallen in absolute terms over the past year despite the powerful rally in the developed markets. They have also underperformed their EM benchmark. Our Emerging Markets strategists posit that ASEAN stocks and curre...
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service remained tactically bullish on stocks for most of 2023, but shifted to neutral at the start of 2024, and downgraded stocks to underweight in late June. Its latest report fleshes out the team’s thinking in Q&A format. Our Global Investment colleagues ...
Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications....
Brazil’s two macro demons – a rising public debt-to-GDP ratio and inflation – have resurfaced and will worsen over the coming months. Yet, President Lula will pay lip service to fiscal concerns without enacting meaningful cutbacks. In addition, a politicized COPOM will cut rates aggressively next ye...
